Supply Chain Management (Englisch)

In this chapter, the main activities taking place in the supply chain are discussed in terms of the SCOR model and, among them, we identify those related to demand modelling and forecast, and to inventory management, as the main issues influencing the dynamics of the supply chain. The AR(1) time series to model the demand is then introduced, along with some useful properties and formulae. Basic forecasting techniques such as the moving average and the exponential smoothing are presented. Different measures of the forecast error are defined and, among them, the mean square error is discussed as a manner to obtain a best-case forecast (Minimal Mean Square Error or MMSE). Expressions of this error and its variance for several products are given for the AR(1) demand models. Finally, the basic concepts of stochastic inventory management (particular the so-called Order Up To or OUT policy) are presented. The chapter concludes with a summary of the topics discussed and with a list of annotated references related to the topics discussed in the chapter.