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Operational Risk [2012]

1
Introduction
1
Operational Risk is Not Just “Other” Risks
1
Surviving a Series of Unfortunate Events
1
Why Do Disasters Happen?
9
Man‐Made Accidents
11
Hyatt Regency Walkway Collapse
15
Operational Risk: Definition, Classification, and its Place among Other Risks
17
What Is Operational Risk?
23
Nightmare In Bhopal
31
The Importance of Corporate Governance
35
Basel II Capital Accord
36
Meltdown At Chernobyl
45
Fundamental Assessment
48
Exxon Valdez
49
What Is Business Process Management?
64
Challenger And Columbia: DÉJÀ VU
65
An Introduction to Risk and Default Analysis
67
Key Challenges in Modeling Operational Risk
73
Integrating Process and Risk Frameworks: Prologue
79
Control Risk Self Assessment (CRSA) ‐ A Behavioural Approach to Risk Management
81
Aligning Risk Appetite with Business Goals
83
Terrorist Acts
85
Frequency Distributions
85
Oklahoma City Bombing
97
Aum Shinrikyo: Terror In Japan
99
Data and Data Collection
101
Determining Potential Risk of Business Processes
111
Loss Distributions
113
attack on the uss cole
119
Data Analysis, Quantification, and Modeling
126
September 11: The World Trade Center
129
Monitoring Process and Risk
135
Causal Analysis
145
Active Risk and Process Management
147
Alpha‐Stable Distributions
148
London Transit Bombings
153
Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning
161
Integrating Process and Risk Frameworks: Epilogue
163
Extreme Value Theory
165
Natural Disasters
167
Dynamic Financial Analysis
167
Role of Technology
167
Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald
177
Enterprise Risk Management
179
Eruption Of Mount St. Helens
183
Truncated Distributions
187
Insurance and Other Risk Transfer Methods
191
South Canyon Fire
197
Role of Outsourcing and Offshoring
201
Testing for the Goodness of Fit
203
Sumatra–andaman Tsunami
213
Hurricane Katrina
213
Observed Best Practices and Future Considerations
219
Role of Organizations
221
Value‐at‐Risk
235
Success Stories
237
United Airlines Flight 232
245
Industry Views
245
Robust Modeling
245
Role of Corporate Governance
247
Alaska Pipeline and Denali Quake
258
Lessons Learned
259
Modeling Dependence
261
Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations
269
Epilogue: Where Do We Go From Here?
273
Changing Corporate Culture
273
Index
277
Introduction to Quantification
285
Index
285
Loss Data
285
Preventing Another Series of Unfortunate Events
299
Index
307
Introductory Statistical Theory
337
Frequency Models
355
Continuous Probability Distributions
379
What is Risk and How Do We Measure It?
387
Frequency Modeling from Small Data Sets
391
Severity Modeling
399
Case Studies
407
Combining Frequency and Severity Data
411
Brief Notes
419
Bibliography
423
Index
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Front Matter
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Front Matter
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Front Matter
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Front Matter
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