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The net effect of an array's operating cell temperature on energy output can be characterized by a single effective cell temperature (ECT). ECT is that temperature at which an array would operate were it to operate at a constant cell temperature and produce the same energy as it would in the natural environment. Since an array effectively produces all of its energy at ECT, an operating efficiency at ECT is also the overall efficiency of the array. This paper presents a methodology for estimating ECT from the Nominal Operating Cell Temperature (NOCT). This paper also presents a new thermal model. The model has been incorporated into the photovoltaic (PV) performance model, PVFORM, and has been proven to be accurate to within 5 exp 0 C. (ERA citation 11:002238)