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A new model for the surface chemistry of zirconium and hafnium diborides containing silicon-carbide when exposed to high temperature conditions in air is formulated. Oxidation dynamics are simplified by considering the diffusion-limited equilibrium regime within the material at elevated temperatures. This model is first assessed against experimental mass-gain data taken from UHTC samples heated to high temperature in an oxygen environment. Then, further evaluations of the new model are conducted using hypersonic CFD simulations to analyze conditions experienced by HfB2-SiC in arc jet experiments conducted at NASA Ames Research Center. Measurements of stagnation point heat transfer and pressure are then used to calibrate the simulations. Results of coupled CFD-material response simulations are then compared to the surface temperatures measured during the Ames arc jet test. Results support the use of the proposed model while highlighting the need for improved gas-phase data on the additional constituents considered.